Bodog Beat

Many clues point to one very strong, overlooked possibility. (AP Images)

The mystery of Big Brown's shockingly weak attempt to complete a rare Triple Crown sweep in the Belmont Stakes may never be solved. According to those who examined him after the race, he came through with no lameness, no bleeding in the lungs, no tear in the quarter crack patch that had been applied so carefully by hoof specialist Ian McKinlay. There were also no overt or internal issues found in subsequent examinations from Sunday to Tuesday to suggest any physical problem or specific reason for his uncharacteristic poor performance. That's why this is a mystery and why it may remain so from now until doomsday.

Shaking their heads in disbelief, more than a few professional observers called it "just one of those days."

Well, maybe. Personally, I came away from the race with a handful of intriguing clues that suggest there was one key reason why Big Brown failed to produce anything close to his best form:

He was not fit enough for the task.

Let me explain: Big Brown's hoof was certainly well cared for and there was no doubt that he could walk, jog, gallop and run without fear of it coming apart. Yet he had been forced to miss several days of important gallops and had a crucial workout postponed from the weekend to Tuesday and it was shortened from the intended six or seven furlongs to a mere five with a moderate gallop out. I saw this work on video replay and reported that he looked good doing it; in retrospect, there were reasons for skepticism.

Consider: Since the Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, Big Brown had a short two-furlong workout on the morning of the Preakness to take the edge off his pent-up energy and on June 3rd he had his five-furlong workout in 1:00.03. That's a total of seven furlongs of serious work during the five weeks of the Triple Crown, and no horse in my lifetime that competed in all three races ever had a lighter training plan.

Sure Big Brown was 'fit' from having run in the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby on May 3rd and the 9 1/2-furlong Preakness on May 17th, but the first inkling that he needed more work came from his exercise rider Michelle Nevin who told reporters after she dismounted from the June 3rd drill that Big Brown "was a handful". . . "so full of himself." Because the hoof injury had kept him in the barn, Nevin acknowledged that the colt "needed to get his work in."

Sure Big Brown was 'fit' from having run in the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby on May 3rd and the 9 1/2-furlong Preakness on May 17th, but the first inkling that he needed more work came from his exercise rider Michelle Nevin who told reporters after she dismounted from the June 3rd drill that Big Brown "was a handful" and "so full of himself." Because the hoof injury had kept him in the barn, Nevin acknowledged that the colt "needed to get his work in."

But first, still another clue surfaced to suggest something was not quite right. On this uncomfortably hot and humid afternoon in which the majority of horses in every race were seen sweating profusely, Big Brown came out on the track for the post parade virtually bone dry, not sweating at all until he completed all his warm-ups. He sweated so little in comparison to the other Belmont horses that it instantly raised a red flag. It reminded me of the day I saw a talented boxer enter the ring completely dry - obviously dehydrated - before he got flattened in the first round.

Seconds into the actual race, the usually responsive Big Brown revealed just how much pent-up energy he had stored during his last few weeks of very light training: he was extremely rank, difficult to control while under extreme restraint during the run to the first turn, displaying nervous kidney sweat for the first time as he anxiously ran up on the heels of front running Da' Tara.

This was the first time Kent Desormeaux ever experienced an erratic response from Big Brown. On numerous occasions Desormeaux had pointed out that Big Brown was "the most intelligent, most responsive horse" he'd ever been on. That, however, was not the horse Desormeaux was dealing with in the 140th Belmont Stakes.

To avoid an early collision, Big Brown was yanked back and angled out sharply to bump into Anak Nakal securing some running room. The move may not have been Desormeaux at his best, but he did get Big Brown into a clear outside lane where he remained in third place from the clubhouse turn to the five-furlong pole approaching the far turn. It was at that point when the 97,000 in attendance and the millions more watching throughout the world expected Big Brown to accelerate past Da' Tara and Tale of Ekati, just as he had turned on his afterburners to score easy victories in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. But as soon as Desormeaux asked Big Brown to do his thing, the jockey instantly knew the game was over.

"I had no horse," Desormeaux said succinctly.

As this was unfolding, Big Brown was going nowhere, getting passed by most of the field before Desormeaux pulled back on the reins and eased him out of the race completely. While he was unsure if anything had gone physically wrong, Big Brown was already in next to last place and despite taking considerable criticism for not pushing on - including some misdirected by trainer Rick Dutrow - I believe Desormeaux's discretion on behalf of safety was a proper choice.

"Something was wrong," he explained later. "We were not going to be fifth and I did what I could to protect him."

While Da' Tara was clearly on the way to victory and Big Brown was on his way to a thousand questions, I also realized that I had bought into Rick Dutrow's brash pronouncements that Big Brown "couldn't lose this race," that the outcome was a "foregone conclusion."

"The horse is 'perfect'," Dutrow stated boldly the day before the Belmont. "I saw the horse," he added. "That's my reason to believe he's going to win; he's the simply the best horse, by a lot."

My mistake to allow my skeptical nature to slip out of range. Like many horseplayers, I had become a fan of this horse and wanted to see a worthy performer become the first to sweep the Triple Crown in 30 years. Having downplayed the clues, there still was no way I could make a case for Da' Tara, a colt whose best race was a second-place finish in the 1 1/16-mile Barbaro on the Preakness undercard.

Da' Tara went wire to wire at 38-1 because he had trained forwardly for trainer Nick Zito, a master at preparing medium-grade horses for peak performances in Grade 1 Classics through extended gallops and a few well-defined workouts. Da' Tara was also aggressively ridden by promising Alan Garcia to take the lead, and he was unchallenged through moderate fractions while Big Brown was an empty saddle when he needed to be at his very best to complete one of the most difficult feats in all of sport. The winner also utilized strength he probably inherited from his sire Tiznow - a two-time winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Second-place finisher Denis of Cork rallied some for a clear-cut second but was never any threat to win the race. Anak Nakal and Ready's Echo finished in a dead heat for third without anyone noticing until the parimutuel results were posted.

The final time for the race, 2:29.65, was one of the slowest clockings for this classic race in 50 years. The 99 Beyer Speed Figure was the slowest recorded in the Belmont since Beyer began to publish his figures in 1991.

The lesson learned from this?

We should have already learned it when Majestic Prince lost his 1969 Triple Crown bid to Arts and Letters because of physical issues. Or when Canonero II lost his 1971 Triple Crown when he suffered through hives during Belmont week. A case of hives also contributed to the sixth-place finish by Sunny's Halo in the 1983 Preakness. In 1996, Unbridled's Song finished out of the money in the Kentucky Derby after dealing with quarter crack problems during Derby week and in 2003 Empire Maker couldn't handle Funny Cide in the Kentucky Derby because a similar hoof issue cost him valuable training time. When healthy, Empire Maker defeated Funny Cide in the Wood Memorial and Belmont Stakes.

So, as good as Big Brown may have seemed after he won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, the lessons of history strongly hint that the interruption of his training routine hampered his ability to reproduce the smooth, responsive form we had previously seen. It's also possible that the absence of the steroid drug Winstrol, which Dutrow legally gave Big Brown once per month up until April 15th, may have played a role in his apparent state of dehydration. I'm not an expert on the effects of this drug, but I do know what I saw on Saturday: The real Big Brown was nowhere to be found.

Added notes: Casino Drive, the undefeated horse from Japan who was seeking to become the third straight foal of the high-class mare Better Than Honor to win the Belmont Stakes, was judiciously scratched from the Belmont on Saturday morning due to a "stone bruise." Casino Drive's connections say they plan to return to America to run in the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita on October 25th and perhaps might even come for the $1 million Travers at Saratoga on August 23rd. Big Brown's connections are going to keep him in training and point for both races, provided that they don't find a reason to send this $50 million stud prospect to the farm. Right now the oft-repeated script that guides the handling of expensive horses suggests they will find such a reason whether it exists or not.

PLEASE NOTE: There were five nationally important stakes supporting the Belmont stakes on Saturday and they will be reviewed in next week's column.

Steve Davidowitz has published two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing and is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus. His columns appear in Bodog Racebook each week. Get all your horse betting action in the Bodog Racebook now.