Bodog Beat

The Tampa Bay Rays made a meal of Jon Lester in Game 3 and cashed in as +175 road dogs. (AP Images)

Now they go into Game 4 with a 2-1 ALCS lead and a guarantee to play at least one more time in Tampa Bay. Your starters for Tuesday’s matchup are Andy Sonnanstine for the Rays and Tim Wakefield for the Red Sox.

Sonnanstine: 4.38 ERA, 100 ERA+, 4.47 xFIP, 4.05 tRA, 19.1 VORP
Wakefield: 4.13 ERA, 111 ERA+, 5.26 xFIP, 4.93 tRA, 28.1 VORP

There’s a disconnect between the traditional ERA stats and the advanced metrics for these two pitchers. Sonnanstine definitely has a higher groundball rate than Wakefield (42.1 percent to 35.5 percent) and a much wider profit margin (9.22 units to –0.68 units). The tRA stat suggests Sonnanstine is even better than James Shields, Tampa’s Game 1 starter at 4.08 tRA. That’s a value pitcher by any measure.

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