Bodog Beat

Matt Ryan has been working out big time over the last few weeks, what with training camp and another huge season just around the corner. (AP Images)

If the Miami Dolphins weren't the biggest surprise in the NFL in 2008, then the Atlanta Falcons definitely were – and in a nice twist, those two clubs open against each other this season.

Matt Ryan had one of the great rookie seasons by a quarterback in NFL history, running back Michael Turner was arguably the best free-agent signing of last year and Roddy White became an elite receiver. All those pieces are back, and the Falcons added future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez to help open the field even more — Atlanta tight ends combined for just 19 catches for 211 yards last season while Gonzalez had 96 catches for 1,058 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Here is the Falcons' 2009 schedule, and we'll break it down after:
Sept. 13 vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Sept. 20 vs. Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m.
Sept. 27 at New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Week 4: Bye
Oct. 11 at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05 p.m.
Oct. 18 vs. Chicago Bears, 8:20 p.m.
Oct. 25 at Dallas Cowboys, 4:15 p.m.
Nov. 2 at New Orleans Saints, 8:30 p.m.
Nov. 8 vs. Washington Redskins, 1 p.m.
Nov. 15 at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m.
Nov. 22 at New York Giants, 1 p.m.
Nov. 29 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m.
Dec. 6 vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m.
Dec. 13 vs. New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.
Dec. 20 at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Dec. 27 vs. Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m.
Jan. 3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m.

Strength of schedule: 4th (opponents combined to go 150-105-1, .588, in 2008)
Projected record: 10-6
Projected Bodog over/under total: 9
Bodog odds to win NFC: 10/1
Bodog odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: 25/1

By all accounts, Ryan has been fabulous in offseason workouts, so there's really no reason Atlanta can win a playoff game or two this year. Although it probably will be tough to match last year's 11-5 record with that much tougher schedule this year. Of course, a big reason for the harder schedule in 2009 is that all four NFC South teams finished .500 or better last year. I fully expect Tampa Bay to finish well under .500 this season, so perhaps the Falcons' schedule is a tad misleading, although they do face the very deep NFC East.

With Gonzalez, the offense could be among the best in the league. The offensive line that allowed just 17 sacks of Ryan last year and helped Atlanta average 4.4 yards per carry is back intact. Look for Turner to not come close to 376 carries again and for the team to get Jerious Norwood more touches to keep Turner from breaking down. But this will continue to be a run-first offense, with offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey letting Gonzalez know he will be blocking more than he did in Kansas City.

I would expect the Falcons to head into their bye week at 2-1.

They will be favored to beat both Miami and Carolina in the first two weeks, and Atlanta did crush the Panthers at the Georgia Dome last year. It's probably not reasonable to expect them to win in New England unless Tom Brady gets hurt again.

Those three October games all will be tough challenges. Only Chicago played the Falcons last year, and the Bears should have won that game in Atlanta but somehow allowed an improbable long completion from Ryan in the final seconds that led to a game-winning field goal. I could see the Falcons losing all three, but let’s say they beat the Niners to enter November at 3-3.

I forecast three wins in November (both at home, for sure) to enter December at 6-5. That’s when the Falcons get rolling, winning four of their final five, including finishing off a sweep of the Bucs in the finale to win the NFC South. I also expect Atlanta to win a wild-card round playoff game this year and give them a decent chance to reach the NFC Championship Game depending on how the bracket falls – i.e. if they can avoid the Vikings, Bears, Eagles or Cowboys on the road in the conference semifinals. However, Ryan's sophomore year will end short of the Super Bowl. That still should be considered a success considering this franchise has never reached the playoffs in consecutive years.

Now is a GREAT time to get those Super Bowl odds. Bodog's got 'em all.