Bodog Beat

Terrell Owens starts the season with the Buffalo Bills. Is that a good thing? (AI Wire Images)

The Buffalo Bills were the surprise team in the NFL last year – for the first quarter of the season. Buffalo started 4-0 and looked like a playoff team with an improved Trent Edwards and emerging stars in Lee Evans and Marshawn Lynch. It was Buffalo's sixth 4-0 start since the 1970 merger, and the previous two times the team had done it, the Bills went to the Super Bowl.

But then the wheels fell off.

Buffalo won just three more games the rest of the season, one in each month. Injuries certainly played a part, as they do on any team. But Edwards seemed to regress a bit in midseason before getting hurt and missing a few games – Buffalo lost both of those with J.P. Losman starting.

To kick start that offense, the Bills shockingly signed Terrell Owens to open up the passing game. And T.O. usually has a good first season with a team before turning into a team-killer, so that bodes well. But that offense also lost its best offensive lineman, trading Jason Peters to Philly.

Coach Dick Jauron got a contract extension through 2011, but almost no one believes he will be around next year if this team finishes 7-9 for the fourth straight season – which is exactly what I project.

Here is the Bills' 2009 schedule, and we’ll break it down after:
Sept. 14 at New England Patriots, 7 p.m.
Sept. 20 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:05 p.m.
Sept. 27 vs. New Orleans Saints, 4:05 p.m.
Oct. 4 at Miami Dolphins, 4:05 p.m.
Oct. 11 vs. Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m.
Oct. 18 at New York Jets, 4:15 p.m.
Oct. 25 at Carolina Panthers, 4:05 p.m.
Nov. 1 vs. Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Week 9: Bye
Nov. 15 at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Nov. 22 at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m.
Nov. 29 vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Dec. 3 vs. New York Jets, 8:20 p.m. (Toronto)
Dec. 13 at Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m.
Dec. 20 vs. New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Dec. 27 at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Jan. 3 vs. Indianapolis Colts CBS 1 p.m.

Strength of schedule: 6th (opponents combined to go 146-110, .570, in 2008)
Projected record: 7-9
Projected Bodog over/under total: 7 ½
Bodog odds to win AFC: 22/1
Bodog odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: 50/1

When looking at the Bills' first three games, remember that Lynch has been suspended for those, which will hurt substantially. Lynch had eight touchdowns and rushed for 1,036 yards last season, reaching his first Pro Bowl. Fred Jackson should carry much of the load.

That Monday night opener against the Patriots is must-see TV, as it's Owens' debut in a Buffalo uniform and the return of Tom Brady for New England. Is there any chance the jacked-up Pats lose in Brady's first game since Week 1 of last year? No way. Buffalo certainly can and should beat the Bucs (their first trip to Buffalo for a regular season game) and Saints in their first two home games, although no doubt it would be nice to face those teams in the cold. That should make Buffalo 2-1 in September.

In October, Buffalo has three road games, including two more on the road in the division. The Bills were 0-6 in the AFC East last year, so it's hard to see them winning on the road in the division this year. Buffalo no doubt will be favored to handle Cleveland at home but will be a dog at Carolina, a 2008 playoff team. That's a 1-3 month, folks.

The November schedule features four potential playoff teams. The Bills won at Jacksonville last year, but that was early when Buffalo was rolling. Let's say they split, winning both home games and dropping both on the road.

In December, the Bills host their second straight game in Toronto, and it didn't go so well in Canada for the home team last year. But I can see Buffalo winning that game and again a week later at a rebuilding Kansas City. So at 7-6, the Bills will have playoff dreams. But then come three Super Bowl contenders to finish the season. New England has won 11 in a row against the Bills and five straight in Buffalo, so good luck there. I can't see the Bills being favored in any of their final three games (assuming each opponent has something to play for) or winning any of them.

That's another 7-9 season for Jauron and probably a pink slip. And then Owens moves on to another team, and the circus follows.

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