Bodog Beat

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are favored by 3.5 points against the Missouri Tigers Thursday night on ESPN. (Wikimedia Image)

With all due respect to 16th-ranked and unbeaten Kansas, recent history shows that Thursday night's winner between Nebraska and Missouri will be the Big 12 North's representative in the conference title game — that has been the case the past three seasons.

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IMHO, what is a little surprising is that Nebraska is a 3-point favorite on Bodog Sportsbook's college football odds. After all, Missouri hasn't lost at home to Nebraska since 2001 (winning those three by an average of 23.0 points) and has won the past two meetings overall in the series by a combined score of 95-23. In a strange quirk, not one of the past 10 games in the series has been decided by single digits. Last year, Chase Daniel and Co. put up 52 points on the Huskers in Lincoln in a 35-point victory. That was the most points Mizzou had scored against Nebraska in 65 years and was NU's biggest home loss since 1955.

You might be saying to yourself, "Well, Chase Daniel is gone now" and that's indeed true. But his replacement at quarterback, sophomore Blaine Gabbert has been nearly as good as Daniel ever was. Gabbert, who originally committed to Nebraska but changed his mind when Bill Callahan was fired a few years ago, is leading the Big 12 in pass efficiency (fourth in the country), having completed 66.4 percent of his passes for 1,161 yards, 11 touchdowns and no interceptions. He's much bigger than Daniel was and faster too – by comparison statistically, Daniel through four games of his sophomore year had completed 63.4 percent of  his passes for 1,020 yards and nine touchdowns with two interceptions.

Thus the key for Nebraska on defense will be to pressure Gabbert.

The Huskers have arguably the best defensive tackle in the country in Ndamukong Suh, who could be the top pick in the 2010 NFL draft, so he could cause havoc. And that Husker defense has been excellent against the run, while Mizzou is struggling some on the ground. Nebraska actually leads the nation in scoring defense, but take into account its non-conference schedule outside of Virginia Tech.

On offense, the Huskers will pound the ball with Roy Helu Jr., who had a career-high 169 yards against an excellent Virginia Tech defense in NU's lone loss a few weeks ago – a game the Huskers should have won (Missouri's run defense is just eighth in the Big 12). The concern for the Cornhuskers might be QB Zac Lee, a junior in his first season as a starter. He has been terrific in three home games but was just 11-of-30 passing for 136 yards in the loss to the Hokies, which happened to be Nebraska's only road game to date.

Look for the Mizzou faithful to be fired up, as this is the school's first weeknight home game in 17 years. And when doing your football betting at Bodog, know that the Tigers have won nine in a row at home against Big 12 foes, a streak that dates to 2004.

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