Bodog Beat

If college football were fair, the North Carolina Tar Heels (7-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) would be running away with the ACC title. (NCTH Image)

They have the best point differential in conference play at +38 (+109 overall). They have the top-ranked team in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. But North Carolina is just 3-3 SU and ATS in the ACC, never losing by more than a field goal.

The North Carolina State Wolfpack are last in the ACC Atlantic at 2-4 (4-6 overall, 7-2 ATS) with a point differential of –23. But while the Tar Heels are squandering opportunities, the Pack is coming off back-to-back upsets of Duke (–3.5 at home) and Wake Forest (–3.5 on the road). N.C. State has gone to the bank five times in a row and seven of the last eight contests.

The Tar Heels are 11-point favorites for Saturday’s matchup. Game time is noon Eastern.