Bodog Beat

Looking ahead to the 2009-2010 NFL season, the San Diego Chargers are 6/1 odds to win the AFC and 12/1 odds to win the Super Bowl. (AI Wire Image)

The old axiom in the NFL is that once a running back turns 30 years old, then the slide downward begins.

Well, LaDainian Tomlinson, the best running back of this decade, turned 30 on June 23. So should San Diego Chargers futures bettors on Bodog be worried about the Bolts this season?

Perhaps Tomlinson's downward trend actually started at 29. Last year, L.T. had career-lows of 292 carries and 1,110 yards rushing. His 3.8 yards-per-carry average, 11 rushing touchdowns, long run of 45 yards, 52 receptions and one touchdown catch all were the second-worst totals of his career.

In all fairness, Tomlinson was bothered by a toe injury all season. Then he hurt his groin in the season finale and Darren Sproles exploded with back-to-back 100-yard-plus games in the finale against the Broncos — although Tomlinson nearly reached the century mark in that game – and the playoff win against the Colts. L.T. was forced out of that Colts game after just five carries and missed the divisional playoff against Pittsburgh, which the Chargers lost.

San Diego thought so much of the diminutive Sproles that the team put the franchise tag on him, and he signed the one-year tender but can become an unrestricted free agent after this season.

That's why 2009 is so big for Tomlinson, who got a reworked deal of his own but not at more money.

I found a great stat that took the averages of the top 50 running backs by yards in NFL history and their numbers in the year they were 29 and then 30. Those players' average rushing yards in a season dropped by more than 150, and touchdowns dropped by a little more than 20 percent.

If you want a recent example, take former Seahawk Shaun Alexander. He was the 2005 NFL MVP at age 28 after rushing for 1,880 yards and 27 TDs. By age 30 those numbers were 716 yards and four touchdowns. Injuries caught up to him, as they do most 30-year-olds and as they seem to be catching up to Tomlinson.

There are always exceptions to the rule, and runners such as Curtis Martin and Emmitt Smith had very good seasons at age 30, but those truly are the exceptions.

For what it's worth, Tomlinson says he is 100 percent healthy and motivated to break Smith’s NFL rushing record.

"That's the one thing that I'm eager to prove, is that doesn't necessarily go for every player," he said. “Turn 30, that doesn't mean that you can't play anymore. There are some guys out there that defy the odds, and I'm eager to prove that."

At Bodog, San Diego is 6/1 odds to win the AFC this year, but could the Bolts do that without a strong season from Tomlinson? If you are betting on San Diego this season, then you are basically betting that L.T. bucks the trend of the majority of backs his age.

Get all your football futures betting at Bodog!