Bodog Beat

Tim Tebow is back. But don't go expecting him to be perfect out there. (AP Images)

There is no doubt the defending  national champion Florida Gators will enter the 2009 college football season as the team to beat not just in the SEC but in the country – and they are 2/1 odds on Bodog to repeat. The Gators bring back the entire defense that befuddled Sam Bradford and Oklahoma in the BCS title game and also bring back two-time Heisman finalist Tim Tebow at quarterback. All they really lost was Percy Harvin.

But I am here to tell you that these Gators simply will not go unbeaten season (that's not to say they won't play in another national title game with just one loss). Why? History shows that they won't. As dominant as Florida has been in the SEC, UF hasn't gone unbeaten in conference play since 1996, when Steve Spurrier and Danny Wuerffel led the school to its first national title.

In 2007, the year following Urban Meyer's first title, the Gators lost three times in the SEC. Since the 2000 season, only two schools have gone unbeaten in the nation's best conference during the regular season, and both those schools reside in Alabama (the Tide last year, Auburn in 2004).

So who will get the Gators this year? Here's a quick rundown of UF's SEC schedule:

Sept. 19 vs. Tennessee – What's less than zero? That's the chances of the Vols in this game. Meyer will want to hang at least 50 on Lane Kiffin, who has thrown down the gauntlet with Florida and been talking trash since getting hired. He'll pay for that in Year 1.

Sept. 26 at Kentucky – All the Gators did last year was beat the Wildcats 63-5, taking a 28-0 lead before Kentucky even had a first down. Is UK 58 points better? Nope, this will be Florida's 23rd straight win in the  series.

Oct. 10 at LSU – This might be the only game in which Florida is not favored in 2009. The Tigers welcome back 13 starters from 2008, and that defense that struggled so much during the season looked back to LSU standards in a 38-3 rout of Georgia Tech in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. However, UF has a week off prior to this game to prepare, while the Tigers have a tough matchup at Georgia the week previous to this one. I think UF ekes this one out.

Oct. 17 vs. Arkansas – It's at home where the Gators tend to play down to an inferior opponent once a year. It happened last year in the loss to Ole Miss, happened in 2007 in a loss to Auburn. It nearly happened in 2006 against South Carolina – only a blocked kick saved the Gators in Steve Spurrier's return to Gainesville. I think this is the trap game of the year for Florida, as the Hogs should be much better in the second year of Bobby Petrino's tenure.

Oct. 24 at Mississippi State – This one has the potential to be a troublesome sandwich game for UF, a road tilt at MSU and new head coach Dan Mullen, who happens to be the Gators' former offensive coordinator. Plus the Gators have their annual huge rivalry game with Georgia the following week, so they better not look past these Bulldogs.

Oct. 31 vs. Georgia (in Jacksonville) – Georgia has to replace both Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno and is likely to take a step back this year. Meyer will always have his team ready to beat up on Mark Richt.

Nov. 7 vs. Vanderbilt – This will be Florida's 19th straight win in the series. No question.

Nov. 14 at South Carolina – The Gamecocks really haven't been close to Florida since that near-miss in 2006. Hard to see this changing with UF having a bye week following this one (OK, it's a game against Florida International).

So that summarizes Florida's 2009 SEC schedule. This incredibly tough, deep conference has gotten the Gators at least once for 12 years straight, and I forecast that to be 13 in 2009. Although if the Florida can get through October unbeaten, I'll be preparing to eat some crow.

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