Bodog Beat

Ronnie Brown is going to have a stellar season this year. Just you wait and see. (AP Images)

The Miami Dolphins were the surprise team of the NFL in 2008, going from 1-15 the season before to the AFC East championship last season. That 10-win turnaround under team boss Bill Parcells and coach Tony Sparano tied the 1999 Indianapolis Colts for the largest in NFL history. In doing so, Parcells took his fifth different franchise to the playoffs.

Chad Pennington was a revelation, coming off the Jets scrap heap to become the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for at least 3,500 yards (3,653) and have seven or fewer interceptions. His completion percentage of 67.4 led the NFL and set a single-season record by a Dolphin, surpassing Dan Marino's 64.2 mark in 1984. He was named Comeback Player of the Year and finished second in NFL MVP voting. Despite this, there are whispers that second-year player Chad Henne might take over at QB this year if the team struggles at all. After all, Henne is considered the future at quarterback for Miami, while Pennington is only signed through this season and doesn't have many years left.

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Also watch for rookie Pat White to get a decent amount of playing time this year in the Wildcat package. Who could run that better than White, one of the best dual-threat QBs in NCAA history at West Virginia? However, this team still lacks enough playmakers at wide receiver.

The defense welcomes back Jason Taylor after his unsuccessful stay in Washington. He and Joey Porter should create major problems for the opposing QBs if both can stay healthy. Miami also tried to improve a mediocre pass defense from last season by focusing on the secondary first in the NFL draft.

Did Miami overachieve in 2008? I think yes, and that a step back is coming.

Here is the Dolphins' 2009 schedule, and we'll break it down after:
Sept. 13 at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Sept. 21 vs. Indianapolis Colts, 8:30 p.m.
Sept. 27 at San Diego Chargers, 4:15 p.m.
Oct. 4 vs. Buffalo Bills, 4:05 p.m.
Oct. 12 vs. New York Jets, 8:30 p.m.
Week 6: Bye
Oct. 25 vs. New Orleans Saints, 4:15 p.m.
Nov. 1 at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Nov. 8 at New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Nov. 15 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m.
Nov. 19 at Carolina Panthers, 8:20 p.m.
Nov. 29 at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m.
Dec. 6 vs. New England Patriots, 8:20 p.m.
Dec. 13 at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m.
Dec. 20 at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Dec. 27 vs. Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Jan. 3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m.

Strength of schedule: 1st (opponents combined to go 152-104, .594, in 2008)
Projected record: 7-9
Bodog over/under total: 7
Bodog odds to win AFC East: 33/4
Bodog odds to win AFC: 20/1
Bodog odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: 40/1

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Here's why Miami won 11 games last year: It had one of the easiest schedules in facing the AFC West and NFC West, divisions that produced a combined .352 winning percentage and one winning record. This year it's about polar opposite, with Miami facing the tougher NFC and AFC South divisions, which combined had just one team under .500 last season (Jacksonville).

The Fins do return to prime-time action this season with four games scheduled. Last year was the first in 39 years that the franchise didn't have any national prime-time games. That opening three-game stretch is pretty rough, with all three clubs legitimate Super Bowl teams. Plus Miami will have to face San Diego off a short week thanks to a Monday night game against Indy (it's Miami's first home opener on a Monday night since 1975).  It's never easy to win on a short week while also having to travel across country. San Diego has lost seven in a row to Miami, but that streak ends this year. I see a 0-3 start for the Dolphins.

Miami was an excellent 6-2 on the road last year. That success will be put to the test starting after the Oct. 25 game against the Saints this year, with six of the next eight on the road. Miami's final seven games are against teams that could be called playoff contenders (Miami has never beaten Houston, by the way), culminating in the season finale with the Super Bowl champs.

This team has better talent than it did in 2008, but the record won't show it. But look for the Dolphins to be a possible big-time contender in 2010.

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