Bodog Beat

Michigan State’s once seemingly insurmountable three-game lead in the Big Ten could be down to one if the Spartans lose Saturday night in Illinois, with MSU opening as a 1-point favorite on Bodog’s college basketball odds.

The Spartans (19-4, 3-5 ATS on road) looked overmatched in Tuesday’s 18-point loss at Wisconsin (MSU’s first in conference play), which was exacerbated by an injury to star point guard Kalin Lucas. The reigning Big Ten Player of the Year sprained his ankle midway through the second half against the Badgers and didn’t return. He is considered “very, very questionable” for tonight’s game after not practicing since getting hurt. Lucas leads the team in minutes, points and assists and has hit several key shots in the final seconds of close games this season. He had a streak of 33 consecutive games with double-figure points ended at Wisconsin. Korie Lucious, who is averaging 5.2 ppg and 3.8 ppg in 21 minutes, would get the start if Lucas can’t go.

Illinois (15-8, 4-7 ATS at home) has won three games in a row and is 11-1 in on-campus home games, with the loss coming against current Top 10 team Purdue. Point guard Demetri McCamey leads the team in scoring (15.1 ppg) and assists (6.2 apg) and could have a big day with Lucas likely out. When Illinois and Michigan State met in East Lansing on Jan. 16 – a 73-63 Spartans win but Illini cover – McCamey led the team with 15 points, but the rest of the starters totaled only 20. Lucas, meanwhile, had 20 that day to outduel McCamey. In that first meeting the Illini shot only 34.9 percent from the field.

When making your college basketball bet at Bodog on this one – certainly wait for definitive word on Lucas (9 p.m. ET tip). But the Illini have lost five straight and seven of their last eight against the Spartans, who have swept the season series the past two seasons.

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