Bodog Beat

A healthy Tom Brady should give the Pats the edge this year. (AP Images)

Is the juggernaut back? Oddsmakers sure think so, as the Patriots are the Bodog favorite odds to win the Super Bowl this season, and that New England offense looks awfully good.

Of course everything starts with Tom Brady, who is healthy by all accounts. In fact, Brady mentioned this week that he even would like to play in all four exhibition games, although I'm guessing Bill Belichick has different ideas; Brady didn't play a snap in the preseason last year before suffering that season-ending knee injury in Week 1 against the Chiefs.

The Pats have added running back Fred Taylor and receiver Joey Galloway to Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk. It will be a big upset if this offense doesn't lead the league in scoring as it did in breaking nearly every record two seasons ago. Who cares that offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is gone? The one concern might be Brady's backup – thus the rumors that the Pats would sign Michael Vick. And New England did sign a veteran quarterback, albeit Andrew Walter. He and untested Kevin O’Connell will battle for the No. 2 spot. The fact that it's those two guys behind Brady should tell you how confident the team is in Brady's health.

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On defense, look for the D-Line to be dominant because both Richard Seymour and Vince Wilfork are playing for contracts and the Pats just traded for former Pro Bowl end Derrick Burgess of the Raiders (Burgess may play linebacker but then move to the line on passing downs). The defense might miss Mike Vrabel (traded to the Chiefs in the Matt Cassel trade) a bit, but Jerod Mayo is a rising star, and Adalius Thomas has looked like a beast in camp after not playing after Week 10 last season due to injury. The one concern might be a secondary that allowed the second-most TD passes in the league this year, although New England did add veteran Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden.

Here is the Patriots' 2009 schedule, and we'll break it down after:
Mon, Sept. 14 vs. Buffalo Bills, 7 p.m.
Sun, Sept. 20 at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Sun, Sept. 27 vs. Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Sun, Oct. 4 vs. Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m.
Sun, Oct. 11 at Denver Broncos, 4:15 p.m.
Sun, Oct. 18 vs. Tennessee Titans, 4:15 p.m.
Sun, Oct. 25 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (London), 1 p.m.
Week 8: Bye
Nov. 8 vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Nov. 15 at Indianapolis Colts, 8:20 p.m.
Nov. 22 vs. New York Jets, 4:15 p.m.
Nov. 30 at New Orleans Saints, 8:30 p.m.
Dec. 6 at Miami Dolphins, 8:20 p.m.
Dec. 13 vs. Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m.
Dec. 20 at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m.
Dec. 27 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m.
Jan. 3 at Houston Texans, 1 p.m.

Strength of schedule: 3rd (opponents combined to go 151-105, .590, in 2008)
Projected record: 11-5
Bodog over/under total: 11 1/2
Bodog odds to win AFC East: 2/9
Bodog odds to win AFC: 3/1
Bodog odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: 4/1

If you go by the opponents' winning percentage of .590 from 2008, this ranks as the most difficult schedule the Patriots have had since Bill Belichick became head coach in 2000. But I would argue that AFC East teams Miami and the Jets overachieved last year, which is sort of skewing that mark.

Think that Monday night opener featuring Brady's return and Terrell Owens' debut in Buffalo will get any ratings? Being as Buffalo has dropped 11 in a row to the Pats and was 0-6 in the AFC East last year, I think it’s safe to say Brady's first game back will be a success. With three of the first four games and four of the first six at Gillette Stadium, the Pats should get off to a fast start and take early control of the AFC East.

It's a little unique that the Pats start with two division games — the last two times the Patriots opened the season against division opponents they started 2-0 (2006 and 1999) — and then don't face another division opponent until Week 9. And then there's only one divisional game in the final four weeks.

That Week 5 game against Denver will be teacher against student as McDaniels' Broncos host New England. Will the Pats have any after-effects from traveling to London for that Tampa Bay "home" game in Week 7? That bye week following should eliminate any hangover.

Of course the game of the year, as it usually is, will be the Patriots and Colts, with New England visiting Indy for the fourth consecutive year (including playoffs). Indianapolis has won four of the past five meetings overall.

Last year, the Patriots went 11-5 and didn't even make the playoffs, becoming the first team since the currently 12-team playoff format (adopted in 1990) to sit out the postseason with 11 wins. That certainly won't happen again, and in fact this team will win the AFC East and likely be in the AFC Championship Game.

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