New Orleans Saints' 2009 projection: 9-7

by Allen James  |  August 9th, 2009
Reggie Bush
Reggie Bush will have to do a lot more this season. (AP Images)

The Saints were one of the most fun teams to watch last year, as they threw the ball all over the place. Drew Brees was just one 20-yard completion short of Dan Marino's NFL record for passing yards in a season, with Brees finishing with 5,069 yards passing and 34 touchdowns on a whopping 635 attempts. Do the math, and that’s basically 40 pass attempts per game. That’s fun to watch, but it probably isn’t going to make you a championship-caliber team. In fact, the Saints finished 8-8 last year and out of the playoffs despite leading the NFL in points. The team had one two-game losing streak and one two-game winning streak but otherwise just alternated wins and losses.

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The problems last year were the running game, which ranked just 28th in the NFL, and, as usual, the defense. Reggie Bush was a disappointment again, averaging just 3.8 yards per rush. He caught 52 passes but never seemed to turn a short pass into a big gain. He finished with just six touchdowns and couldn't stay healthy again. He had offseason knee surgery, so that’s something to keep an eye on. And Deuce McAllister was cut loose, so Bush might be counted on to run more in 2009 alongside Pierre Thomas, the every-down back. Tight end Jeremy Shockey also was a disappointment after coming over from the Giants, catching 50 passes for 483 yards and no touchdowns. He also had some injury problems.

But despite some issues on offense, this team can score, so the Saints concentrated on fixing the defense heading into 2009. The team brought in a new defensive coordinator in Gregg Williams, who is known as being very aggressive in his schemes. New Orleans really needs ends Will Smith and Charles Grant to step up and stay healthy. It was in the secondary where the Saints really performed an overhaul, including drafting Ohio State’s Malcolm Jenkins with their first-round pick when many expected a running back. The team also brought in a few veterans to help out.

Basically, however, this team looks much the same. Expect a lot of high-scoring games and a lot of over totals.

Here is the Saints' 2009 schedule, and we’ll break it down after:
Sept. 13 vs. Detroit Lions, 1 p.m.
Sept. 20 at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m.
Sept. 27 at Buffalo Bills, 4:05 p.m.
Oct. 4 vs. New York Jets, 4:05 p.m.
Week 5: Bye
Oct. 18 vs. New York Giants, 1 p.m.
Oct. 25 at Miami Dolphins, 4:15 p.m.
Nov. 2 vs. Atlanta Falcons, 8:30 p.m.
Nov. 8 vs. Carolina Panthers, 4:05 p.m.
Nov. 15 at St. Louis Rams, 1 p.m.
Nov. 22 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m.
Nov. 30 vs. New England Patriots, 8:30 p.m.
Dec. 6 at Washington Redskins, 1 p.m.
Dec. 13 at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Dec. 19 vs. Dallas Cowboys, 8:20 p.m.
Dec. 27 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m.
Jan. 3 at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m.

Strength of schedule: 8th (opponents combined to go 142-113-1, .557, in 2008)
Projected record: 9-7
Bodog over/under total: 9
Bodog odds to win NFC South: 2/1
Bodog odds to win NFC: 10/1
Bodog odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: 22/1

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The Saints do have the NFC South's easiest schedule, but New Orleans also went 3-5 against in 2008 against the teams on this year's schedule.

New Orleans hasn't had a winning first month since 2006, the last time the team made the playoffs. Opening with the 0-16 Lions should help this year, but the Saints will be underdogs in those two road games to end September.

That the first division game isn't until Week 8 is a little odd. There is little question the key stretch for this team starts with that Week 10 game in St. Louis. That's the first of four road games in five weeks. If New Orleans can go a minimum of 3-2, this team might contend for a playoff spot.

The Saints have more prime-time games (three) scheduled than any NFC South team, and all three of those are at home. They still could be underdogs in all three. That Patriots game is New England’s first visit to Louisiana since winning Super Bowl XXXV in 2001.

If New Orleans misses the playoffs for a third straight year, former Coach of the Year Sean Payton might be out of a job.

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