Bodog Beat

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The New York Giants could very well have repeated as Super Bowl champions last year had one of two things had happened: 1) Plaxico Burress decided to stay in and rent a movie instead of going to a Manhattan nightclub on Friday night in late November; or 2) Burress would have left his illegal gun at home or in the glove compartment of the car.

But we all know that Plax did neither, and the Giants weren’t the same after the No. 1 receiver was suspended. Two days after the Plax incident, the G-Men beat the Redskins for their seventh straight win to improve to 11-1. But then the wheels fell off, with New York losing three of its final four regular-season games. Then the Eagles beat New York for the second time in a month to end the Giants’ repeat bid in the divisional round.

Simply put, the New York offense, especially Eli Manning, wasn’t the same without the threat of Burress. In the Giants’ final five games, including that playoff loss, Manning never threw for more 191 yards, completed only better than 52 percent of his passes twice and threw two touchdowns against four picks. Yet Eli still got a $97 million contract extension this month.

So one would assume that the Giants would have taken major steps to replace Burress in the offseason, but they weren’t able to swing a deal for a veteran receiver like Anquan Boldin or Braylon Edwards. New York did take North Carolina’s Hakeem Nicks at No. 29 overall in the draft. Basically, the Giants will try and mix and match with Steve Smith, Domenik Hixon, Mario Manningham and Hicks. Does that group really scare defenses?

Key backup running back Derrick Ward left for Tampa Bay as a free agent, meaning Ahmad Bradshaw will get more work as Brandon Jacobs’ backup. And defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is now the Rams’ head coach. But that defense should be better this year, especially the line. While Justin Tuck was outstanding last season, the line did wear down. But getting back Osi Umenyiora after he missed all of 2008 will make the pass rush that much better. The team also added tackles Rocky Bernard and Chris Canty. Barring injuries, the defense shouldn’t be a concern in 2009.

Here is the Giants’ 2009 schedule, and we’ll break it down after:

• Sept. 13 vs. Washington Redskins, 4:15 p.m.
• Sept. 20 at Dallas Cowboys, 8:20 p.m.
• Sept. 27 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m.
• Oct. 4 at Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m.
• Oct. 11 vs. Oakland Raiders, 1 p.m.
• Oct. 18 at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.
• Oct. 25 vs. Arizona Cardinals, 8:20 p.m.
• Nov. 1 at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:15 p.m.
• Nov. 8 vs. San Diego Chargers, 4:15 p.m.
• Week 10: Bye
• Nov. 22 vs. Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
• Nov. 26 at Denver Broncos, 8:20 p.m.
• Dec. 6 vs. Dallas Cowboys, 4:15 p.m.
• Dec. 13 vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20 p.m.
• Dec. 21 at Washington Redskins, 8:30 p.m.
• Dec. 27 vs. Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m.
• Jan. 3 at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m.

Strength of schedule: 10th (opponents combined to go 134-20-2, .527, in 2008)

Projected record: 11-5

Bodog over/under total: 10

Bodog odds to win NFC East: 33/20

Bodog odds to win NFC: 9/2

Bodog odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: 11/1

If New York’s opener and closing two weeks look familiar, it’s because it’s exactly the same as last season. The Giants opened with a win at Washington in 2008 and closed with a win at home against Carolina and loss at Minnesota, and I’d venture to say that all happens again as well. By the way, that Panthers game is New York’s final regular-season game in Giants Stadium.

That Week 2 game in Dallas opens the new $1.2 billion stadium in Arlington. It’s the first of three straight road games for the G-Men, the franchise’s longest consecutive road stretch in the regular season in 15 years (the team won three road games in a row in 2007 on the way to the Super Bowl). The good news is that both Tampa Bay and Kansas City figure to be at the bottom of their respective divisions.

Coach Tom Coughlin is on the record as preferring the bye week later in the season, so he was pleased with it coming in Week 10; it’s the team’s latest since 1991. But then the Falcons matchup marks the Giants’ fourth straight game against a 2008 playoff team.

The quick turnaround for the Thanksgiving game at Denver could be a major test with the Giants having to travel and play in the altitude; the Broncos are home that previous Sunday. It’s New York’s first Turkey Day game since 1992. The NFC East should be decided in that three-game stretch starting Dec. 6 against Dallas.

So can this team reach the Super Bowl again? It has been tremendous on the road, for the most part, the past few years. But not having a clear-cut No. 1 receiver will end this team’s 2009 journey one win short of the NFC title game.