Bodog Beat

Are you pulling for the Jets? (AP Images)

I try to be a glass half-full type of guy, but I just don’t see why anyone thinks the Jets will approach .500 this year. I would argue this team massively overachieved last season with Brett Favre and will take a big step back this year under rookie QB Mark Sanchez and first-year head coach Rex Ryan.

Don’t get me wrong, I think this team will be competitive. Ryan brought a bunch of Ravens defenders with him, so that unit should be just as good against the run as it was last year (7th) but better against the pass (29th in 2008), especially with adding cornerback Lito Sheppard from the Eagles. Ryan’s attacking 3-4 scheme virtually assures a top-10 overall defensive finish.

And there’s little doubt the Jets will rely heavily on the run, whether it’s Sanchez (as expected) or Kellen Clemens under center. Thomas Jones led the AFC in rushing (1,312) and tied for the lead in TDs (15) last season, but most expect him to slow down at age 31. But Ryan has said he wants Leon Washington to get many more touches this year, and the team also drafted Doak Walker Award winner Shonn Greene out of Iowa. Seriously, this club could lead the NFL in carries in 2009 behind a good offensive line. However, the offense will miss WR Laveraneus Coles, especially with not much else behind new No. 1 Jerricho Cotchery.

Expect a lot of low-scoring, close games as the Jets play ball control and try to win by winning the turnover battle and with their excellent special teams.

Here is the Jets’ 2009 schedule, and we’ll break it down after:

• Sept. 13 at Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
• Sept. 20 vs. New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
• Sept. 27 vs. Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
• Oct. 4 at New Orleans Saints, 4:05 p.m.
• Oct. 12 at Miami Dolphins, 8:30 p.m.
• Oct. 18 vs. Buffalo Bills, 4:15 p.m.
• Oct. 25 at Oakland Raiders, 4:05 p.m.
• Nov. 1 vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
• Week 9: Bye
• Nov. 15 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m.
• Nov. 22 at New England Patriots, 4:15 p.m.
• Nov. 29 vs. Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m.
• Dec. 3 at Buffalo Bills, 8:20 p.m. (Toronto)
• Dec. 13 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m.
• Dec. 20 vs. Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
• Dec. 27 at Indianapolis Colts, 4:15 p.m.
• Jan. 3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m.

Strength of schedule: 7th (opponents combined to go 145-110-1, .568, in 2008)

Projected record: 4-12

Bodog over/under total: 7

Bodog odds to win AFC East: 8/1

Bodog odds to win AFC: 18/1

Bodog odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: 40/1

If there is one lock game on the NFL board in Week 1, it’s the Jets losing at Houston. Not just because the Texans are a better team and at home, but because New York is expected to be without two of its best defensive players: Shaun Ellis and Calvin Pace. Ellis, a tackle, is expected to be suspended for the opener after getting caught with marijuana late last season. That decision hadn’t come down as of this writing, but Ellis himself expects to miss that one game. He led the Jets with eight sacks last year. For sure out is Pace, a linebacker who had seven sacks last year. He was suspended for the first four games for violating the NFL’s substance-abuse policy. Pace’s seven sacks in 2008 were a career high, and he added 67 tackles, five forced fumbles and four fumble recoveries.

The Week 2 game against the Patriots is the fourth consecutive year that the Patriots have been the opponent in New York’s home opener. Does that rivalry lose anything with former New England assistant Eric Mangini no longer coaching Gang Green?

In an interesting twist, the Jets shouldn’t have to worry much about the conditions in seven of their eight road games. Oh, it might be a problem in Week 11 at New England, but the Jets have four road games at teams with roofs (that Buffalo game is in Toronto; it’s New York’s first game north of the border since a 1988 exhibition in Montreal), two in Florida and one in California. That New York has only one West Coast game is a positive, considering the team was 0-4 out there last year, which basically cost it a playoff spot.

Frankly, if the Jets have any chance at reaching .500, in my opinion, they need to go 4-0 in the four-game stretch starting Week 6. It’s certainly not impossible that New York beats Buffalo, Miami and Jacksonville at home and wins at Oakland. Unfortunately, I also think the Jets enter Week 6 at 0-5.

That season finale with the Bengals is the last scheduled NFL regular-season game at the Meadowlands, with both the Jets and Giants moving into a new stadium next season.