Bodog Beat

Colts' QB Peyton Manning will be counting on Reggie Wayne big time this year. (AP Images)

Elsewhere on the Bodog Beat, you will find a story where I tackled the Bodog prop bet of how many 1,000-yard rushers there will be this NFL season. I recommended under the total of 16½. Now let's hit on the receiving version of that prop listed on Bodog.

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The site's over/under for receivers to reach 1,000 yards in 2009 is 21½. Before doing any research, that seems like a very high number. But there were 22 guys who accomplished the feat in 2008 and 23 in 2007 – but just 19 in 2006.

Now obviously there are two starting receivers (at least) per team, so the number of pass catchers to exceed 1,000 yards should always better the number of rushers who do so, since only one back starts per team. And I'm not even including the tight end as a starting receiver – and that position is absolutely part of this prop, so would be any running back that might exceed 1,000 yards receiving; the most yards a back has had receiving since the 2002 season is Charlie Garner's 941 in ’02.

Plus, more and more teams are going to the no-huddle, or shotgun on earlier downs, and thus passing more after seeing what the Patriots did in 2007 – the Bills, for one, plan to run the no-huddle frequently this year.

So what's the answer?

Here is a quick look by team, in no particular order, that seems a lock to have a 1,000-yard receiver:
Vikings (Bernard Berrian), Redskins (Santana Moss), Lions (Calvin Johnson), Packers (Greg Jennings and Donald Driver), Saints (Marques Colston), Falcons (Roddy White and tight end Tony Gonzalez), Panthers (Steve Smith), Seahawks (T.J. Houshmandzadeh), Cardinals (Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald), Chiefs (Dwyane Bowe), Broncos (Brandon Marshall – assuming he's still a Bronco and/or not suspended), Chargers (either Vincent Jackson or Antonio Gates), Colts (Reggie Wayne), Texans (Andre Johnson), Patriots (Randy Moss and Wes Welker), Bills (Terrell Owens and Lee Evans), Steelers (Santonio Holmes), Bengals (Chad Ochocinco), Browns (Braylon Edwards).

That's 24 guys. And I didn't include anyone on the following four teams, all of whom have good quarterbacks: Dallas (only because it’s not clear who will step up with T.O. gone), Chicago (even though the Bears will clearly pass more with Jay Cutler), the New York Giants (who steps up for Plaxico?) and Philadelphia (the Eagles have a lot of options for Donovan McNabb).

Take the over.

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