Bodog Beat

The San Diego Chargers will need LaDainian Tomlinson to come up real big this season if the Bolts hope to make it to the Super Bowl . (AI Wire Image)

The San Diego Chargers thought they could survive without All-Pro linebacker Shawne Merriman last year. But you simply can't lose a guy who had double-digit sacks in his first three seasons and is arguably the NFL's best pass rusher without feeling it. Thus San Diego had just 28 sacks as a team in 2008; Merriman's career average is about half of that. The Charger pass defense really felt his absence, as it ranked 31st in the league.

In addition, LaDainian Tomlinson seemed to slow down last season, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. Was that a fluke? Maybe not, as LT seemed nicked up all season. But Tomlinson, the former two-time rushing champion, also will be 30 entering this season, and that's often the magic number for running backs to really hit the wall in the NFL.

Was it really a huge surprise that San Diego started last year 4-8? Yet the Bolts rallied to win the AFC West yet again (thanks to Denver’s choke) and won a playoff game; they were the first team to ever reach the playoffs after starting 4-8.

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And there were very good signs last year that bode well for 2009: QB Philip Rivers emerged as one of truly elite quarterbacks in the league in 2008 with a team-record 34 touchdown passes and a league-leading 105.5 rating. Receiver Vincent Jackson stepped up with his first 1,000-yard season. And San Diego found a major offensive weapon in running back Darren Sproles, who was stellar late in the year and in the playoff win over the Colts when Tomlinson was ailing.

Plus the Charger defense seemed to come alive last year when coordinator Ted Cottrell was fired and Ron Rivera took over. So that unit should be very good again this year with Merriman back. Frankly, this is easily the most talented team in the AFC West, which should be a cakewalk. If guys like Tomlinson, tight end. Antonio Gates and cornerback Antonio Cromartie (he was burned often last year) can return to form, this team could compete for the best record in the AFC because it should be 6-0 in the division.

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Is a Super Bowl run possible? It definitely is, but San Diego would probably need home-field advantage to beat a New England or Pittsburgh (or any cold-weather team) in the playoffs.

Here is the Chargers' 2009 schedule, and we'll break it down after:
Sept. 14 at Oakland Raiders, 10:15 p.m.
Sept. 20 vs. Baltimore Ravens, 4:15 p.m.
Sept. 27 vs. Miami Dolphins, 4:15 p.m.
Oct. 4 at Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:20 p.m.
Week 5: Bye
Oct. 19 vs. Denver Broncos, 8:30 p.m.
Oct. 25 at Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m.
Nov. 1 vs. Oakland Raiders, 4:05 p.m.
Nov. 8 at New York Giants, 4:15 p.m.
Nov. 15 vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 4:15 p.m.
Nov. 22 at Denver Broncos, 4:15 p.m.
Nov. 29 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 4:05 p.m.
Dec. 6 at Cleveland Browns, 4:05 p.m.
Dec. 13 at Dallas Cowboys, 4:15 p.m.
Dec. 20 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 4:05 p.m.
Dec. 25 at Tennessee Titans, 7:30 p.m.
Jan. 3 vs. Washington Redskins, 4:15 p.m.

Strength of schedule: 17th (opponents combined to go 123-131-2, .484, in 2008)
Projected record: 11-5
Bodog over/under total: 9 1/2
Bodog odds to win AFC West: 2/7
Bodog odds to win AFC: 11/2
Bodog odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: 10/1

The Chargers have started slowly in the past two seasons, so it's vital they turn that around in 2009 for any hopes of a top-two seed in the AFC.

Certainly San Diego should be favored in all three September games. Do you think the Chargers and Oakland are tired of seeing each other to start the season? And what’s with the game always being at the Raiders' place? This will be the seventh time the Chargers and Raiders open the season against each other, and the previous six all were in Oakland, which has won five of those six. No way the Raiders make it six of seven, in my opinion, considering they have lost 11 in a row in this series.

Obviously those next three games will be much tougher for the Chargers, facing 2008 playoff foes Baltimore, Miami and Pittsburgh. It will be San Diego's third game in less than a year in the Steel City, and the Bolts didn't win either of the previous two. Still, I expect a 3-1 start to the year with the bye probably coming at a good time.

Coming out of the bye, look for a three-game winning streak through division foes. The games against the Giants and Eagles could both be Super Bowl previews; I expect a San Diego split there. By the way, it's the first time the Bolts have visited the Giants since memorable "Snowball Game" in 1995. It's Philly's first visit to San Diego in 11 years. December has been when this team has taken off under Turner, going 9-0 the past two seasons. The Chargers won't be unbeaten in the month this year, not with games at Dallas and Tennessee. That Titans game is San Diego's first ever on Christmas.

As noted above, if San Diego can sweep the AFC West (it went 5-1 in the division last year), 11 wins should be very doable. Whether or not that's good enough to edge out fellow AFC favorites New England and Pittsburgh for a home game in the playoffs is the big question. But with the right playoff draw, this team could make it to the Super Bowl.

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