Bodog Beat

Jon Fitch is a huge favorite at UFC 100. (MMA Weekly Photo)

The biggest underdog on Saturday’s UFC 100 card is Paulo Thiago (+400), the relative unknown from Brazil who scored a major upset over Josh Koscheck (–410) back in February. That was Thiago’s UFC debut after racking up a perfect 10-0 record in his native country.

Thiago’s getting no love as he prepares to face Jon Fitch (–600), whose only loss in 10 fights in the Octagon was last year to Georges St-Pierre. Fitch and Koscheck are training partners at the American Kickboxing Academy, so Fitch will have the information advantage; he’s also a superior fighter to Koscheck, who was dominating Thiago until the underdog scored a surprise first-round TKO.

Observers may be devaluing Thiago’s win over Koscheck because of the controversial referee stoppage. But there is a clash of styles here that definitely favors Fitch, a supreme defensive grappler from Purdue who should be able to thwart Thiago’s jiu-jitsu attack.

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